#NovemberUpdate: Memory Steps into the “Unknown Territory” Nexperia’s Market Moves Reveal Hidden Signals

Published on: November 25, 2025

A Demand Revolution in the AI Era: Global Memory Chips Are Poised to Enter a “Super Cycle”

Has the ‘Nexperia Turmoil’ Truly Come to an End? The Stalemate May Be Far from Over

INFINEON Releases Q4 FY2025 and Full-Year Operating Results

The traditional logic of the memory market is being fundamentally rewritten. In the past, PCs, smartphones, and other consumer electronics were the primary buyers of DRAM and NAND—highly price-sensitive customers with volatile demand cycles. Today, however, the demand landscape has shifted dramatically. AI data centers and cloud service providers—platforms built on intensive computing—are demonstrating an unprecedented level of price insensitivity.

Coupled with explosive growth in AI and cloud demand, as well as capacity adjustments by major manufacturers, memory pricing is now entering “uncharted territory.” With AI continuing to serve as a long-term growth engine, the memory super-cycle is expected to deepen further.

Analysts note that AI-driven structural changes—especially supply-demand imbalance and sustained price escalation—are likely to extend beyond 2027. Meanwhile, safety stock in most automotive and industrial segments has reached the bottom. Prices for DDR3 have doubled, DDR5 price hikes this month are expected to surpass DDR4, and the shortage of NAND Flash is becoming even more pronounced.

Following the unusually intense buying spree for DRAM, NAND Flash has now entered a full-scale and structural demand surge. Major global manufacturers—including SAMSUNG, SK hynix, KOXIA, and MICRON—are jointly reducing supply in the second half of this year. SanDisk has announced a one-time 50% increase in November contract prices for NAND, marking the largest monthly jump since 2000, and its third price adjustment this year.

As AI servers transition from HBM3E to HBM4, the number of stacked layers continues to rise. This, in turn, is pushing NOR Flash demand up by around 50%. MXIC’s order book is filled, and the company is expected to raise NOR Flash pricing by at least 30% in Q1 next year.

Data-center customers will feel the impact first. Although 3C consumer electronics customers typically experience a lag, many have already begun stockpiling safety inventory or seeking alternative solutions. Others are being forced to accept the reality of worsening shortages.

NEXPERIA Regulatory Storm

Although the Dutch Ministry of Economic Affairs announced on November 19 that it would suspend the administrative order against NEXPERIA, giving the impression that the dispute had wrapped up this month, the semiconductor market does not move according to political timelines. The Dutch court’s earlier rulings—freezing NEXPERIA’s assets and stripping management control—remain in effect.

This effectively means that the Dutch government has acknowledged that its previous decisions caused far greater disruption to the global supply chain than anticipated. As of now, the Netherlands has not resumed shipments to NEXPERIA’s operations in China.

China, on the other hand, announced on November 1 an exemption for certain qualified exports and has begun gradually restoring its outbound operations. Honda later reported that production at its Celaya plant in Mexico resumed on the 20th. However, achieving a rapid and meaningful restoration of safety and stability across the global power semiconductor supply chain will require the Dutch side to present—and implement—a constructive solution to correct its missteps as soon as possible.

What appears to be a bilateral commercial dispute between China and the Netherlands is, in fact, a microcosm of the broader restructuring of the global semiconductor value chain. In today’s deeply interconnected world, any attempt to fragment supply chains through administrative intervention ultimately harms the initiator, incurring high costs and proving unsustainable.

For China’s semiconductor companies, this episode serves not only as a risk warning but also as a strategic lesson.

INFINEON

INFINEON released its financial results for Q4 FY2025 and the full fiscal year on November 12, 2025 (for the period ending September 30, 2025).
In the fourth quarter of FY2025, INFINEON generated €3.943 billion in revenue and €717 million in profit, with a profit margin of 18.2%. For the full fiscal year, revenue totaled €14.662 billion, representing a slight year-over-year decline of 2%. Full-year profit reached €2.56 billion, with a profit margin of 17.5%.

Due to the acquisition of Marvell’s automotive Ethernet business, free cash flow turned negative at €–1.051 billion, while adjusted free cash flow remained positive at €1.803 billion. Overall, FY2025 performance was broadly in line with expectations.
Looking ahead to FY2026, Infineon expects first-quarter revenue of around €3.6 billion, with moderate and steady growth for the full year. Growth momentum in the automotive, industrial, and consumer electronics sectors remains subdued, prompting customers to rely primarily on short-term spot orders.

At the same time, the accelerating adoption of AI applications is driving INFINEON to prioritize the development of power solutions for AI data centers, a key strategic focus for future growth.

Manufacturer Updates

Market Trends

Hot Topics: The slowdown in automotive and new-energy demand is being offset by surging requirements from AI data centers and high-performance servers. Memory chips remain the hottest segment in today’s market.

Analog Devices

Demand for ADI products remains strong across multiple categories, including RF devices such as the ADXLx series, linear products like LT2/6x, and power-management modules such as the LTMx series. Spot-market prices remain firm, and lead times continue to extend—generally holding at 19–24 weeks. Although price-increase expectations have contributed to ongoing demand, distributors remain cautious with forward-order quotations. Customers are advised to plan ahead and prepare for potential future price hikes.
At TI, despite some price increases, the manufacturer remains focused on retaining market share. Pricing for key accounts remains negotiable. For high-demand general-purpose components—such as SNx logic devices, and power-management families like TPSx and TLVx—spot prices remain relatively stable, supported by healthy inventory levels and fast turnover rates. As the year draws to a close, spot distributors are prioritizing early order fulfillment to secure revenue and close deals.

Logic Devices

ALTERA FPGA devices are facing severe supply shortages as production capacity continues to be absorbed by AI-related demand, resulting in further lead-time extensions.
For XILINX, lead times for high-end series have stretched to 40–52 weeks or longer, with automotive-grade and above particularly affected. Market expectations indicate that FPGA shortages and price increases are likely to intensify through 2026.

MCU Devices

Demand for ST‘s STM32F and STM32H7 series remains relatively stable.
NXP‘s automotive MCUs continue to experience tight supply. Although inquiries for standard materials have increased compared with earlier periods, actual transaction volumes remain limited.
MICROCHIP‘s 8-bit and 16-bit MCU lead times are continuing to shorten, while demand for other product families appears softer, with prices trending downward.

Discrete Devices

Price volatility is primarily concentrated in components used for servers and electric-vehicle power systems. Under the influence of ongoing geopolitical tensions—combined with rising precious-metal costs and tariff pressures—quotations remain firm.
NEXPERIA: Spot-market demand has begun to cool, with activity now concentrated on automotive logic (74HCx), automotive MOSFETs (BUKx), automotive ESD protection (PESDx), and TVS diodes (BAVx). Spot prices have shown slight easing, while lead times for forward orders are trending longer. Some distributors have even suspended quotations for high-demand items due to unclear capacity allocation.
ONSEMI: Impacted by NEXPERIA’s recent shortages, certain power devices have seen price increases, and lead times are extending.
VISHAY: Lead times for diodes and MOSFETs remain in the 10–24-week range.
INFINEON: Capacity is being shifted toward automotive electronics, and price increases are expected across other product categories, accompanied by extended lead times.

Passive Components

The recovery in automotive electronics, AI services, and consumer electronics is driving demand to pick up again. What needs attention is that MLCC supply is tightening, especially for high-capacitance and high-voltage products; delivery cycles have already been extended by 8–10 weeks or are in allocation status.
For tantalum capacitors, lead times are extending. AVX’s current delivery lead time is 20–28 weeks, while Kemet/Yageo is around 28–47 weeks. At the end of October, KEMET announced a price increase of 20%–30% across all product lines, effective November 1, 2025.
For MLCCs, some products are seeing price increases and extended supplier lead times. Kemet/Yageo and AVX are around 20–34 weeks, while TDK is around 24–26 weeks.
For connectors, lead times remain relatively stable within 20 weeks, but most products show a clear upward price trend. Interruptions in supply and materials have intensified production pressure for connector components, further compounded by tariff-related price fluctuations. For example, TE/ITT/CONESYS all show price increases in the third quarter.

Memory Products

Spot-market supply for both NAND and DRAM is tightening across the board, with supply–demand imbalances continuing to worsen. The shortage is expected to persist at least through the end of 2026, and the NAND supply gap is projected to remain above 10% throughout next year. If AI inference servers continue scaling, the shortage may extend into the first half of 2027. This month has clearly reflected panic-driven stockpiling, and the upward price trend remains significant. Customers are advised to secure safety stock as early as possible.

DRAM

DDR3 is facing severe capacity compression as manufacturers shift production toward higher-margin HBM and DDR5. Original suppliers are either cutting DDR3 output sharply or discontinuing supply altogether, making the product increasingly difficult to source.
DDR4 demand is concentrated in 4Gb, 8Gb, and 16Gb devices. Spot prices continue to rise due to tight supply and sellers holding back inventory, and some parts are now even priced higher than DDR5.
DDR5 supply remains tight, and prices are steadily increasing. Sellers remain hesitant to release inventory, which is pushing prices even higher.

NAND Flash

Demand remains strong for mainstream eMMC 4Gb and 8Gb parts, while enterprise SSD demand has surged dramatically. With HBM production consuming more wafer capacity, the supply gap for NAND continues to widen. Price increases are likely to extend through the first half of 2026.

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